NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
19-52 | Road
130
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
39-32 | Home
136
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
PISTONS
0%
PELICANS
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.7
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.7 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DET -4.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
NO By 1-7 points
19.1%
NO By 8-14 points
8.4%
DET By 1-7 points
27.3%
DET By 8-14 points
22.6%
AI Model Projected Score
New Orleans
109.67
NEW ORLEANS
Detroit
114.33
DETROIT
Simulated Score
New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS
Detroit
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pistons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pistons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.7
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 26, 2026
NO @ DET
108 - 129
Jan 21, 2026
DET @ NO
112 - 104
Mar 23, 2025
NO @ DET
130 - 136
Mar 17, 2025
DET @ NO
127 - 81
Mar 24, 2024
NO @ DET
114 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+32.4% more
Detroit: 9.5
vs
New Orleans: 7.2
Blocks (L5)
+31.3% more
Detroit: 6.4
vs
New Orleans: 4.9
Rebounding (L5)
+10.7% more
Detroit: 44.8
vs
New Orleans: 40.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.6%
Detroit: 76.6%
vs
New Orleans: 68.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NO Score
109.7
130
DET Score
114.3
136
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 34.8
48.1 / 50.0
Assists
26.2 / 24.2
26.0 / 35.0
Blocks
6.4 / 4.9
2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
49.1 / 47.4
54.7 / 57.6
Free Throw %
76.6 / 68.1
72.5 / 75.0
Rebounding
44.8 / 40.4
32.0 / 37.0
Steals
9.5 / 7.2
6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
14.0 / 19.2
8.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
NO
DET
NO
ML
55%
64-53
62%
98-61
49%
47-49
58%
48-35
ATS
53%
60-54-3
68%
107-51-1
49%
47-49
58%
48-35
TTL
60%
70-46-1
75%
119-40
100%
96-0
100%
83-0
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