Home / NBA Projections NBA / Raptors @ Wizards TOR @ WSH

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

24-47  |  Road

112
FINAL
Mon, Mar 24 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

15-55  |  Home

104
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
0%
📊
WIZARDS
100%
RAPTORS --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.4
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.4 points (Toronto)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

66.9%

Wizards Cover

33.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOR -4.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1-7 points

27.3%

TOR By 8-14 points

22.2%

WSH By 1-7 points

19.5%

WSH By 8-14 points

8.8%

AI Model Projected Score
112.15
TORONTO
107.77
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
TORONTO
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Raptors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Raptors (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.4
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 219.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 TOR @ WSH 134 - 125
Dec 26, 2025 TOR @ WSH 117 - 138
Nov 21, 2025 WSH @ TOR 110 - 140
Oct 12, 2025 TOR @ WSH 113 - 112
Mar 24, 2025 TOR @ WSH 112 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +13.2% more
Toronto: 19.1 vs Washington: 16.6
Assists (L5) +9.2% more
Toronto: 27.5 vs Washington: 25.0
Rebounding (L5) +9.1% more
Toronto: 46.5 vs Washington: 42.3
Blocks (L5) +56.3% more
Washington: 4.9 vs Toronto: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 112.2 112
WSH Score 107.8 104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.4 / 32.6 29.7 / 27.8
Assists 25.0 / 27.5 24.0 / 28.0
Blocks 4.9 / 3.2 9.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 44.0 / 43.3 40.2 / 40.6
Free Throw % 76.5 / 74.3 67.6 / 74.1
Rebounding 42.3 / 46.5 48.0 / 60.0
Steals 9.7 / 7.6 8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 16.6 / 19.1 17.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
TOR
WSH
TOR
ML
70% 112-49
55% 57-47
47% 39-44
55% 48-39
ATS
69% 111-49-1
61% 62-40-2
47% 39-44
55% 48-39
TTL
74% 119-41-1
60% 62-42
100% 83-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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