Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pacers @ Wizards IND @ WSH

INDIANA

PACERSIND

42-30  |  Road

162
FINAL
Thu, Mar 27 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

16-56  |  Home

109
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
📊
WIZARDS
100%
PACERS --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.5
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Indiana)
PacersIND (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pacers Cover

63.5%

Wizards Cover

36.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -3.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

IND By 1-7 points

27.3%

IND By 8-14 points

20.8%

WSH By 1-7 points

21.0%

WSH By 8-14 points

10.0%

AI Model Projected Score
114.14
INDIANA
110.68
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
INDIANA
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pacers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pacers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.5
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 224.8
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 20, 2026 IND @ WSH 118 - 131
Feb 19, 2026 IND @ WSH 105 - 112
Dec 14, 2025 WSH @ IND 108 - 89
Nov 28, 2025 WSH @ IND 86 - 119
Apr 8, 2025 WSH @ IND 98 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +23.6%
Indiana: 86.5% vs Washington: 62.9%
Steals (L5) +12.7% more
Indiana: 8.1 vs Washington: 7.1
Assists (L5) +9.8% more
Indiana: 29.3 vs Washington: 26.4
Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
Indiana: 49.1% vs Washington: 45.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 114.1 162
WSH Score 110.7 109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.5 / 37.4 36.7 / 57.4
Assists 26.4 / 29.3 19.0 / 48.0
Blocks 6.2 / 5.1 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 49.1 44.7 / 64.1
Free Throw % 62.9 / 86.5 84.6 / 89.5
Rebounding 45.8 / 42.3 31.0 / 50.0
Steals 7.1 / 8.1 9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 14.8 / 13.3 15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND Advantage
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
IND
WSH
IND
ML
70% 112-49
48% 47-50
47% 39-44
54% 45-38
ATS
69% 111-49-1
59% 57-40
47% 39-44
54% 45-38
TTL
74% 119-41-1
54% 52-45
100% 83-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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