HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
47-26 | Road
121
UTAH
JAZZUTAH
16-57 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
JAZZ
100%
ROCKETS
--
JAZZ
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-7 points
26.9%
HOU By 8-14 points
18.9%
UTAH By 1-7 points
22.8%
UTAH By 8-14 points
11.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
112.39
HOUSTON
Utah
110.2
UTAH
Simulated Score
Houston
HOUSTON
Utah
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 222.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 3, 2026
UTAH @ HOU
106 - 140
Feb 23, 2026
UTAH @ HOU
105 - 125
Dec 1, 2025
HOU @ UTAH
125 - 133
Nov 30, 2025
HOU @ UTAH
129 - 101
Oct 8, 2025
UTAH @ HOU
127 - 140
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+31.3% more
Houston: 8.4
vs
Utah: 5.8
Blocks (L5)
+26.9% more
Houston: 4.3
vs
Utah: 3.2
Rebounding (L5)
+19.2% more
Houston: 49.3
vs
Utah: 39.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.3%
Houston: 45.6%
vs
Utah: 43.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
112.4
121
UTAH Score
110.2
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.6 / 34.7
47.8 / 32.4
Assists
24.6 / 20.7
29.0 / 26.0
Blocks
3.2 / 4.3
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
43.3 / 45.6
54.4 / 46.1
Free Throw %
73.4 / 74.8
76.5 / 78.9
Rebounding
39.9 / 49.3
33.0 / 51.0
Steals
5.8 / 8.4
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
17.2 / 13.5
16.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
UTAH
Advantage
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
HOU
UTAH
HOU
ML
60%
96-63
61%
69-44
48%
40-43
59%
51-35
ATS
68%
108-51
62%
70-43
48%
40-43
59%
51-35
TTL
75%
119-39-1
51%
58-55
100%
83-0
100%
86-0
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