GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
41-31 | Road
111
NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
20-53 | Home
95
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
PELICANS
100%
WARRIORS
--
PELICANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
218.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Golden State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
GS By 1-7 points
26.1%
GS By 8-14 points
16.7%
NO By 1-7 points
24.4%
NO By 8-14 points
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Golden State
109.52
GOLDEN STATE
New Orleans
108.65
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warriors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Warriors (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.9
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 218.2
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 24, 2026
GS @ NO
109 - 113
Nov 29, 2025
NO @ GS
96 - 104
Nov 16, 2025
GS @ NO
124 - 106
Mar 28, 2025
GS @ NO
111 - 95
Nov 22, 2024
GS @ NO
112 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+19.3% more
Golden State: 9.3
vs
New Orleans: 7.5
Blocks (L5)
+28.0% more
New Orleans: 4.9
vs
Golden State: 3.9
Turnovers (L5)
+22.2% more
New Orleans: 18.2
vs
Golden State: 14.9
Assists (L5)
+20.4% more
New Orleans: 30.5
vs
Golden State: 25.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GS Score
109.5
111
NO Score
108.7
95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.9 / 34.0
30.4 / 23.6
Assists
30.5 / 25.3
24.0 / 29.0
Blocks
4.9 / 3.9
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
50.4 / 43.4
40.7 / 41.3
Free Throw %
75.1 / 75.8
78.6 / 75.9
Rebounding
43.2 / 40.2
46.0 / 50.0
Steals
7.5 / 9.3
6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
18.2 / 14.9
16.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
Advantage
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
GS
NO
GS
ML
62%
98-61
55%
95-79
58%
48-35
58%
49-35
ATS
68%
107-51-1
58%
101-73
58%
48-35
58%
49-35
TTL
75%
119-40
77%
134-40
100%
83-0
100%
84-0
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