UTAH
JAZZUTAH
16-58 | Road
93
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
46-28 | Home
129
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
NUGGETS
0%
JAZZ
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.1
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.1 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -12.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
UTAH By 1-7 points
7.9%
UTAH By 8-14 points
2.1%
DEN By 1-7 points
20.0%
DEN By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah
104.98
UTAH
Denver
117.05
DENVER
Simulated Score
Utah
UTAH
Denver
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.1
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
DEN @ UTAH
130 - 117
Mar 27, 2026
UTAH @ DEN
129 - 135
Mar 2, 2026
DEN @ UTAH
128 - 125
Dec 22, 2025
UTAH @ DEN
112 - 135
Mar 28, 2025
UTAH @ DEN
93 - 129
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+38.2% more
Denver: 5.2
vs
Utah: 3.8
Assists (L5)
+22.7% more
Denver: 31.9
vs
Utah: 26.0
Steals (L5)
+20.7% more
Denver: 6.7
vs
Utah: 5.5
Rebounding (L5)
+20.6% more
Denver: 45.3
vs
Utah: 37.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score
105.0
93
DEN Score
117.1
129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.7 / 40.3
37.9 / 17.5
Assists
31.9 / 26.0
38.0 / 21.0
Blocks
5.2 / 3.8
13.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
50.6 / 47.0
57.8 / 35.5
Free Throw %
67.8 / 74.4
78.6 / 83.3
Rebounding
45.3 / 37.6
45.0 / 42.0
Steals
6.7 / 5.5
12.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 16.8
18.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
UTAH
DEN
UTAH
ML
54%
57-48
60%
96-63
55%
47-39
48%
40-43
ATS
63%
65-38-2
68%
108-51
55%
47-39
48%
40-43
TTL
54%
56-48-1
75%
119-39-1
100%
86-0
100%
83-0
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