GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
42-31 | Road
148
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
31-42 | Home
106
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
SPURS
0%
WARRIORS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
GS By 1-7 points
24.1%
GS By 8-14 points
13.4%
SA By 1-7 points
26.3%
SA By 8-14 points
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Golden State
113.78
GOLDEN STATE
San Antonio
114.95
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spurs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spurs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 228.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
SA @ GS
127 - 113
Feb 11, 2026
SA @ GS
126 - 113
Nov 14, 2025
GS @ SA
109 - 108
Nov 12, 2025
GS @ SA
125 - 120
Apr 9, 2025
SA @ GS
114 - 111
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.0%
San Antonio: 35.6%
vs
Golden State: 30.5%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.7%
San Antonio: 78.5%
vs
Golden State: 75.8%
Turnovers (L5)
+28.3% more
Golden State: 13.6
vs
San Antonio: 9.8
Steals (L5)
+10.5% more
Golden State: 9.5
vs
San Antonio: 8.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GS Score
113.8
148
SA Score
115.0
106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.6 / 30.5
38.1 / 47.7
Assists
26.2 / 26.6
30.0 / 42.0
Blocks
2.9 / 2.9
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.6 / 42.7
47.6 / 57.7
Free Throw %
78.5 / 75.8
62.5 / 78.9
Rebounding
41.5 / 43.5
34.0 / 44.0
Steals
8.5 / 9.5
4.0 / 17.0
Turnovers
9.8 / 13.6
21.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
GS
SA
GS
ML
60%
111-73
55%
95-79
58%
61-44
58%
49-35
ATS
58%
107-76-1
58%
101-73
58%
61-44
58%
49-35
TTL
74%
134-47-3
77%
134-40
100%
105-0
100%
84-0
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