Home / NBA Projections NBA / Hornets @ Pelicans CHA @ NO

CHARLOTTE

HORNETSCHA

18-55  |  Road

94
FINAL
Sun, Mar 30 • 7:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

20-54  |  Home

98
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
PELICANS
0%
HORNETS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
210.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.2
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.2 points (New Orleans)
HornetsCHA (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

33.9%

Pelicans Cover

66.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NO -4.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

CHA By 1-7 points

19.9%

CHA By 8-14 points

9.1%

NO By 1-7 points

27.4%

NO By 8-14 points

21.9%

AI Model Projected Score
103.21
CHARLOTTE
107.37
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
CHARLOTTE
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pelicans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pelicans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 210.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 2, 2026 NO @ CHA 95 - 102
Nov 4, 2025 CHA @ NO 112 - 116
Mar 30, 2025 CHA @ NO 94 - 98
Jan 25, 2025 NO @ CHA 92 - 123
Jan 17, 2024 CHA @ NO 112 - 132
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +44.8% more
New Orleans: 7.0 vs Charlotte: 4.8
Blocks (L5) +15.9% more
New Orleans: 5.0 vs Charlotte: 4.3
Turnovers (L5) +10.3% more
New Orleans: 17.5 vs Charlotte: 15.8
Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
New Orleans: 47.1% vs Charlotte: 43.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHA Score 103.2 94
NO Score 107.4 98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.4 / 35.8 29.0 / 24.2
Assists 28.4 / 27.3 24.0 / 20.0
Blocks 5.0 / 4.3 8.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 43.6 41.3 / 35.2
Free Throw % 76.3 / 79.2 76.5 / 88.0
Rebounding 44.1 / 44.8 57.0 / 50.0
Steals 7.0 / 4.8 9.0 / 15.0
Turnovers 17.5 / 15.8 17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA Advantage
45-39-0 (53.6%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA Advantage
50-34-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
NO
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9% Total +/-: -3.4
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
CHA
NO
CHA
ML
62% 98-61
61% 60-39
58% 48-35
48% 40-44
ATS
68% 107-51-1
60% 59-40
58% 48-35
48% 40-44
TTL
75% 119-40
58% 57-42
100% 83-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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