MIAMI
HEATMIA
33-41 | Road
120
WASHINGTON
WIZARDSWSH
16-58 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
WIZARDS
100%
HEAT
--
WIZARDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
214.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.5
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -8.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
24.9%
MIA By 8-14 points
26.5%
WSH By 1-7 points
13.0%
WSH By 8-14 points
4.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
111.58
MIAMI
Washington
103.13
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Miami
MIAMI
Washington
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.5
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 214.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
MIA @ WSH
140 - 117
Apr 4, 2026
WSH @ MIA
136 - 152
Mar 10, 2026
WSH @ MIA
129 - 150
Feb 8, 2026
MIA @ WSH
132 - 101
Apr 13, 2025
WSH @ MIA
119 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+31.8% more
Miami: 10.0
vs
Washington: 6.8
Assists (L5)
+18.2% more
Miami: 28.1
vs
Washington: 23.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+15.8%
Miami: 48.6%
vs
Washington: 32.8%
Turnovers (L5)
+15.0% more
Miami: 14.0
vs
Washington: 11.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
111.6
120
WSH Score
103.1
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.8 / 48.6
30.2 / 28.1
Assists
23.0 / 28.1
22.0 / 29.0
Blocks
5.5 / 3.6
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.6 / 51.2
39.5 / 50.5
Free Throw %
76.1 / 78.7
72.2 / 70.8
Rebounding
40.6 / 40.5
39.0 / 62.0
Steals
6.8 / 10.0
14.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
11.9 / 14.0
18.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
WSH
17-65-0
(20.7%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
WSH
33-49-0
(40.2%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIA
WSH
MIA
ML
70%
112-49
48%
46-50
47%
39-44
59%
48-34
ATS
69%
111-49-1
51%
49-47
47%
39-44
59%
48-34
TTL
74%
119-41-1
59%
57-39
100%
83-0
100%
82-0
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