Home / NBA Projections NBA / Jazz @ Pacers UTAH @ IND

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

16-61  |  Road

112
FINAL
Fri, Apr 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

45-31  |  Home

140
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
100%
📊
PACERS
0%
JAZZ --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Indiana)
JazzUTAH (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jazz Cover

39.7%

Pacers Cover

60.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

UTAH By 1-7 points

22.2%

UTAH By 8-14 points

11.3%

IND By 1-7 points

27.1%

IND By 8-14 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
110.34
UTAH
112.94
INDIANA
Simulated Score
UTAH
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pacers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pacers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 223.3
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 3, 2026 UTAH @ IND 131 - 122
Nov 11, 2025 IND @ UTAH 128 - 152
Apr 4, 2025 UTAH @ IND 112 - 140
Feb 3, 2025 IND @ UTAH 112 - 111
Jan 15, 2024 IND @ UTAH 105 - 132
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +46.1% more
Indiana: 5.2 vs Utah: 3.6
Assists (L5) +23.1% more
Indiana: 30.4 vs Utah: 24.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.3%
Indiana: 39.2% vs Utah: 28.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +7.1%
Indiana: 49.5% vs Utah: 42.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 110.3 112
IND Score 112.9 140
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.2 / 28.9 37.5 / 30.8
Assists 30.4 / 24.7 38.0 / 21.0
Blocks 5.2 / 3.6 17.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 49.5 / 42.4 57.3 / 37.5
Free Throw % 82.3 / 76.9 68.4 / 85.7
Rebounding 41.2 / 39.5 51.0 / 52.0
Steals 8.0 / 8.3 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 13.2 7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH Advantage
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH Advantage
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
IND
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
UTAH
IND
UTAH
ML
48% 47-50
60% 96-63
54% 45-38
48% 40-43
ATS
59% 57-40
68% 108-51
54% 45-38
48% 40-43
TTL
54% 52-45
75% 119-39-1
100% 83-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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