Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Lakers NO @ LAL

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

21-55  |  Road

108
FINAL
Fri, Apr 4 • 10:30 PM ET
Crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

46-30  |  Home

124
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
LAKERS
0%
PELICANS --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
214.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.2 points (Los Angeles)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

18.0%

Lakers Cover

82.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAL -9.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

NO By 1-7 points

11.9%

NO By 8-14 points

3.9%

LAL By 1-7 points

24.1%

LAL By 8-14 points

26.9%

AI Model Projected Score
102.46
NEW ORLEANS
111.63
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
NEW ORLEANS
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 214.1
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 NO @ LAL 101 - 110
Jan 6, 2026 LAL @ NO 111 - 103
Nov 30, 2025 NO @ LAL 121 - 133
Nov 14, 2025 LAL @ NO 118 - 104
Apr 4, 2025 NO @ LAL 108 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +11.3%
Los Angeles: 86.4% vs New Orleans: 75.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.6%
Los Angeles: 37.7% vs New Orleans: 29.1%
Turnovers (L5) +31.6% more
New Orleans: 17.2 vs Los Angeles: 11.8
Blocks (L5) +25.4% more
New Orleans: 5.3 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 102.5 108
LAL Score 111.6 124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.7 / 29.1 39.0 / 41.2
Assists 24.7 / 27.6 26.0 / 27.0
Blocks 4.0 / 5.3 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 47.0 51.9 / 48.8
Free Throw % 86.4 / 75.1 92.9 / 63.6
Rebounding 41.3 / 45.3 36.0 / 38.0
Steals 7.3 / 8.1 7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 17.2 13.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
LAL
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
NO
LAL
NO
ML
61% 68-43
62% 98-61
54% 49-42
58% 48-35
ATS
61% 67-43-1
68% 107-51-1
54% 49-42
58% 48-35
TTL
61% 66-43-2
75% 119-40
100% 91-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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