Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Warriors HOU @ GS

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

51-27  |  Road

106
FINAL
Sun, Apr 6 • 8:30 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

46-31  |  Home

96
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
ROCKETS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.9
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.9 points (Golden State)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

34.9%

Warriors Cover

65.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -3.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

HOU By 1-7 points

20.3%

HOU By 8-14 points

9.5%

GS By 1-7 points

27.4%

GS By 8-14 points

21.5%

AI Model Projected Score
117.76
HOUSTON
121.64
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
HOUSTON
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.9
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 239.4
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 HOU @ GS 117 - 116
Mar 5, 2026 GS @ HOU 115 - 113
Nov 26, 2025 HOU @ GS 104 - 100
May 4, 2025 GS @ HOU 103 - 89
May 2, 2025 HOU @ GS 115 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +33.6% more
Golden State: 11.0 vs Houston: 8.2
Free Throw % (L5) +9.3%
Golden State: 85.9% vs Houston: 76.6%
Blocks (L5) +51.7% more
Houston: 5.0 vs Golden State: 2.4
Rebounding (L5) +18.2% more
Houston: 51.9 vs Golden State: 42.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 117.8 106
GS Score 121.6 96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.6 / 41.4 37.2 / 33.3
Assists 28.7 / 26.6 28.0 / 26.0
Blocks 2.4 / 5.0 2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 49.1 41.6 / 48.4
Free Throw % 85.9 / 76.6 54.5 / 37.5
Rebounding 42.4 / 51.9 46.0 / 49.0
Steals 11.0 / 8.2 12.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 12.8 20.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
HOU
GS
HOU
ML
55% 95-79
61% 69-44
58% 49-35
59% 51-35
ATS
58% 101-73
62% 70-43
58% 49-35
59% 51-35
TTL
77% 134-40
51% 58-55
100% 84-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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