WASHINGTON
WIZARDSWSH
17-61 | Road
98
INDIANA
PACERSIND
47-31 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
100%
PACERS
0%
WIZARDS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.4
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.4 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -14.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
WSH By 1-7 points
5.4%
WSH By 8-14 points
1.2%
IND By 1-7 points
16.3%
IND By 8-14 points
25.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
107.24
WASHINGTON
Indiana
121.63
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Washington
WASHINGTON
Indiana
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.4
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 228.9
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 20, 2026
IND @ WSH
118 - 131
Feb 19, 2026
IND @ WSH
105 - 112
Dec 14, 2025
WSH @ IND
108 - 89
Nov 28, 2025
WSH @ IND
86 - 119
Apr 8, 2025
WSH @ IND
98 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+133.9% more
Indiana: 8.4
vs
Washington: 3.6
Assists (L5)
+59.9% more
Indiana: 33.3
vs
Washington: 20.8
Steals (L5)
+40.0% more
Indiana: 8.6
vs
Washington: 6.2
Rebounding (L5)
+16.9% more
Indiana: 43.3
vs
Washington: 37.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
107.2
98
IND Score
121.6
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.1 / 33.1
25.7 / 28.2
Assists
33.3 / 20.8
21.0 / 18.0
Blocks
8.4 / 3.6
5.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
50.7 / 43.8
37.9 / 41.8
Free Throw %
80.4 / 77.7
78.4 / 73.3
Rebounding
43.3 / 37.1
49.0 / 50.0
Steals
8.6 / 6.2
7.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
8.4 / 12.4
9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0
(20.7%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
IND
Advantage
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0
(40.2%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
WSH
IND
WSH
ML
48%
47-50
70%
112-49
54%
45-38
47%
39-44
ATS
59%
57-40
69%
111-49-1
54%
45-38
47%
39-44
TTL
54%
52-45
74%
119-41-1
100%
83-0
100%
83-0
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