SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
32-47 | Road
114
GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
47-32 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
WARRIORS
0%
SPURS
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.3
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.3 points (Golden State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -3.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
SA By 1-7 points
21.2%
SA By 8-14 points
10.3%
GS By 1-7 points
27.3%
GS By 8-14 points
20.5%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
113.08
SAN ANTONIO
Golden State
116.35
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Golden State
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warriors
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Warriors (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 229.4
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
SA @ GS
127 - 113
Feb 11, 2026
SA @ GS
126 - 113
Nov 14, 2025
GS @ SA
109 - 108
Nov 12, 2025
GS @ SA
125 - 120
Apr 9, 2025
SA @ GS
114 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+53.0% more
Golden State: 12.2
vs
San Antonio: 8.0
Rebounding (L5)
+18.3% more
Golden State: 48.1
vs
San Antonio: 40.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.4%
Golden State: 77.7%
vs
San Antonio: 71.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.1%
Golden State: 38.8%
vs
San Antonio: 36.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
113.1
114
GS Score
116.4
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.8 / 36.8
33.3 / 39.1
Assists
29.3 / 27.3
29.0 / 23.0
Blocks
2.5 / 4.0
2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 47.2
41.9 / 48.1
Free Throw %
77.7 / 71.3
82.1 / 85.7
Rebounding
48.1 / 40.6
45.0 / 43.0
Steals
12.2 / 8.0
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
15.3 / 15.3
12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
SA
GS
SA
ML
55%
95-79
60%
111-73
58%
49-35
58%
61-44
ATS
58%
101-73
58%
107-76-1
58%
49-35
58%
61-44
TTL
77%
134-40
74%
134-47-3
100%
84-0
100%
105-0
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