MIAMI
HEATMIA
36-44 | Road
153
NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
21-59 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
PELICANS
100%
HEAT
--
PELICANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.7
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.7 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -7.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
25.6%
MIA By 8-14 points
26.0%
NO By 1-7 points
14.2%
NO By 8-14 points
5.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
114.61
MIAMI
New Orleans
106.92
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
Miami
MIAMI
New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.7
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 221.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 11, 2026
MIA @ NO
123 - 111
Jan 4, 2026
NO @ MIA
106 - 125
Apr 11, 2025
MIA @ NO
153 - 104
Jan 1, 2025
NO @ MIA
108 - 119
Oct 13, 2024
NO @ MIA
99 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+9.3% more
Miami: 8.9
vs
New Orleans: 8.1
Blocks (L5)
+8.9% more
Miami: 3.8
vs
New Orleans: 3.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.7%
Miami: 39.6%
vs
New Orleans: 33.9%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.6%
Miami: 75.0%
vs
New Orleans: 72.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
114.6
153
NO Score
106.9
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.9 / 39.6
37.8 / 44.4
Assists
27.8 / 26.6
27.0 / 36.0
Blocks
3.5 / 3.8
2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.6 / 47.6
40.0 / 55.8
Free Throw %
72.4 / 75.0
70.0 / 77.3
Rebounding
46.8 / 44.3
42.0 / 60.0
Steals
8.1 / 8.9
6.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
16.0 / 12.2
15.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
NO
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
NO
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
MIA
NO
MIA
ML
62%
98-61
48%
46-50
58%
48-35
59%
48-34
ATS
68%
107-51-1
51%
49-47
58%
48-35
59%
48-34
TTL
75%
119-40
59%
57-39
100%
83-0
100%
82-0
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