Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Jazz OKC @ UTAH

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

66-14  |  Road

145
FINAL
Fri, Apr 11 • 9:30 PM ET
Delta Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

17-63  |  Home

111
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
JAZZ
100%
THUNDER --
JAZZ --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.8
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.8 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 JazzUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

94.3%

Jazz Cover

5.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -15.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

14.1%

OKC By 8-14 points

24.5%

UTAH By 1-7 points

4.2%

UTAH By 8-14 points

0.9%

AI Model Projected Score
122.25
OKLAHOMA CITY
106.48
UTAH
Simulated Score
OKLAHOMA CITY
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.8
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 228.7
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 UTAH @ OKC 111 - 146
Jan 7, 2026 UTAH @ OKC 125 - 129
Dec 7, 2025 OKC @ UTAH 131 - 101
Nov 21, 2025 OKC @ UTAH 144 - 112
Apr 11, 2025 OKC @ UTAH 145 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +19.3% more
Oklahoma City: 4.3 vs Utah: 3.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Oklahoma City: 40.7% vs Utah: 36.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
Oklahoma City: 49.3% vs Utah: 46.6%
Turnovers (L5) +54.9% more
Utah: 16.1 vs Oklahoma City: 10.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 122.3 145
UTAH Score 106.5 111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.5 / 40.7 27.0 / 45.3
Assists 25.9 / 24.9 23.0 / 41.0
Blocks 3.4 / 4.3 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 49.3 37.9 / 56.0
Free Throw % 81.8 / 78.9 80.0 / 69.2
Rebounding 45.2 / 41.8 57.0 / 47.0
Steals 10.1 / 9.7 7.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 16.1 / 10.4 16.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
UTAH Advantage
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
OKC
UTAH
OKC
ML
60% 96-63
70% 80-34
48% 40-43
48% 46-49
ATS
68% 108-51
73% 83-30-1
48% 40-43
48% 46-49
TTL
75% 119-39-1
67% 76-38
100% 83-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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