Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Trail Blazers GS @ POR

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

47-33  |  Road

103
FINAL
Fri, Apr 11 • 10:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

35-45  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
WARRIORS --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.3
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.2 points (Golden State)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

90.7%

Trail Blazers Cover

9.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -13.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

GS By 1-7 points

18.1%

GS By 8-14 points

26.7%

POR By 1-7 points

6.6%

POR By 8-14 points

1.6%

AI Model Projected Score
123.39
GOLDEN STATE
110.14
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
GOLDEN STATE
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 233.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 13, 2026 POR @ GS 97 - 119
Dec 14, 2025 GS @ POR 131 - 136
Nov 21, 2025 POR @ GS 127 - 123
Oct 24, 2025 GS @ POR 119 - 139
Oct 14, 2025 GS @ POR 118 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +14.6% more
Golden State: 29.2 vs Portland: 25.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.7%
Golden State: 37.0% vs Portland: 29.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +5.0%
Golden State: 79.2% vs Portland: 74.2%
Blocks (L5) +110.2% more
Portland: 4.9 vs Golden State: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 123.4 103
POR Score 110.1 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.3 / 37.0 20.0 / 31.8
Assists 25.0 / 29.2 21.0 / 26.0
Blocks 4.9 / 2.4 5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 44.9 37.6 / 39.8
Free Throw % 74.2 / 79.2 72.7 / 82.1
Rebounding 46.3 / 47.1 52.0 / 45.0
Steals 10.7 / 10.8 9.0 / 15.0
Turnovers 15.1 / 14.2 22.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
GS
POR
GS
ML
53% 56-49
55% 95-79
55% 49-40
58% 49-35
ATS
62% 65-39-1
58% 101-73
55% 49-40
58% 49-35
TTL
56% 58-46-1
77% 134-40
100% 89-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
dallasnews 33 minutes ago
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
yahoo 49 minutes ago
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Declares Himself NBA's Best Player, Shru…
bleacherreport 6 hours, 36 minutes ago
Luka Doncic Embraces Lakers Legacy: 'It's an Honor, Not Pressure…
yahoo 6 hours, 39 minutes ago
Boston Celtics' Young Wings Face Huge Opportunity After Jaylen B…
yahoo 6 hours, 43 minutes ago