WASHINGTON
WIZARDSWSH
17-64 | Road
119
MIAMI
HEATMIA
37-44 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
100%
HEAT
0%
WIZARDS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.9
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.9 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -13.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
WSH By 1-7 points
5.8%
WSH By 8-14 points
1.4%
MIA By 1-7 points
17.0%
MIA By 8-14 points
26.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
104.28
WASHINGTON
Miami
118.21
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Washington
WASHINGTON
Miami
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.9
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 222.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
MIA @ WSH
140 - 117
Apr 4, 2026
WSH @ MIA
136 - 152
Mar 10, 2026
WSH @ MIA
129 - 150
Feb 8, 2026
MIA @ WSH
132 - 101
Apr 13, 2025
WSH @ MIA
119 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+53.7% more
Miami: 9.9
vs
Washington: 6.5
Assists (L5)
+32.9% more
Miami: 29.8
vs
Washington: 22.4
Rebounding (L5)
+16.6% more
Miami: 49.5
vs
Washington: 42.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+12.3%
Miami: 41.2%
vs
Washington: 28.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
104.3
119
MIA Score
118.2
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.2 / 28.9
31.3 / 43.2
Assists
29.8 / 22.4
28.0 / 33.0
Blocks
4.2 / 4.4
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
50.3 / 40.7
50.0 / 51.1
Free Throw %
75.8 / 77.4
83.3 / 64.7
Rebounding
49.5 / 42.5
46.0 / 43.0
Steals
9.9 / 6.5
8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.1 / 15.5
8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0
(20.7%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0
(40.2%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
WSH
MIA
WSH
ML
48%
46-50
70%
112-49
59%
48-34
47%
39-44
ATS
51%
49-47
69%
111-49-1
59%
48-34
47%
39-44
TTL
59%
57-39
74%
119-41-1
100%
82-0
100%
83-0
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