Home / NBA Projections NBA / Raptors @ Spurs TOR @ SA

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

30-51  |  Road

118
FINAL
Sun, Apr 13 • 3:30 PM ET
Frost Bank Center
View Odds Details →

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

33-48  |  Home

125
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
📊
SPURS
0%
RAPTORS --
SPURS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (San Antonio)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 SpursSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

44.3%

Spurs Cover

55.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)

TOR By 1-7 points

23.7%

TOR By 8-14 points

13.0%

SA By 1-7 points

26.5%

SA By 8-14 points

17.6%

AI Model Projected Score
110.5
TORONTO
111.94
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
TORONTO
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Spurs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Spurs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.4
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 222.4
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 SA @ TOR 110 - 107
Oct 27, 2025 TOR @ SA 103 - 121
Apr 13, 2025 TOR @ SA 118 - 125
Mar 23, 2025 SA @ TOR 123 - 89
Feb 12, 2024 SA @ TOR 122 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +18.4% more
San Antonio: 15.2 vs Toronto: 12.8
Free Throw % (L5) +5.5%
San Antonio: 74.1% vs Toronto: 68.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.4%
San Antonio: 37.8% vs Toronto: 33.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
San Antonio: 46.1% vs Toronto: 44.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 110.5 118
SA Score 111.9 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.8 / 33.3 34.4 / 35.9
Assists 26.6 / 28.5 22.0 / 32.0
Blocks 3.5 / 3.5 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 44.3 51.2 / 47.4
Free Throw % 74.1 / 68.6 87.5 / 75.0
Rebounding 40.9 / 46.6 50.0 / 42.0
Steals 7.2 / 10.7 11.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 15.2 / 12.8 12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
SA Advantage
75-31-0 (70.8%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
SA Advantage
60-44-2 (57.7%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
TOR
SA
TOR
ML
60% 111-73
55% 57-47
58% 61-44
55% 48-39
ATS
58% 107-76-1
61% 62-40-2
58% 61-44
55% 48-39
TTL
74% 134-47-3
60% 62-42
100% 105-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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