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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

67-14  |  Road

115
FINAL
Sun, Apr 13 • 3:30 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

21-60  |  Home

100
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
THUNDER --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.6
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.6 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

94.0%

Pelicans Cover

6.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -15.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

14.4%

OKC By 8-14 points

24.8%

NO By 1-7 points

4.4%

NO By 8-14 points

0.9%

AI Model Projected Score
124.41
OKLAHOMA CITY
108.85
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
OKLAHOMA CITY
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 233.3
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 27, 2026 NO @ OKC 95 - 104
Nov 17, 2025 OKC @ NO 126 - 109
Nov 2, 2025 NO @ OKC 106 - 137
Apr 13, 2025 OKC @ NO 115 - 100
Feb 10, 2025 NO @ OKC 101 - 137
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +29.6% more
Oklahoma City: 10.5 vs New Orleans: 7.4
Blocks (L5) +28.4% more
Oklahoma City: 4.2 vs New Orleans: 3.0
Assists (L5) +9.0% more
Oklahoma City: 30.3 vs New Orleans: 27.6
Field Goal % (L5) +7.8%
Oklahoma City: 51.6% vs New Orleans: 43.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 124.4 115
NO Score 108.9 100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 42.2 18.4 / 19.1
Assists 27.6 / 30.3 22.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.0 / 4.2 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 51.6 38.5 / 41.8
Free Throw % 71.6 / 75.7 76.7 / 88.9
Rebounding 45.2 / 43.5 47.0 / 54.0
Steals 7.4 / 10.5 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 15.6 / 10.3 13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
OKC
NO
OKC
ML
62% 98-61
70% 80-34
58% 48-35
48% 46-49
ATS
68% 107-51-1
73% 83-30-1
58% 48-35
48% 46-49
TTL
75% 119-40
67% 76-38
100% 83-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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