Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Rockets GS @ HOU

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

0-0  |  Road

95
FINAL
Sun, Apr 20 • 9:30 PM ET
Toyota Center
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

0-0  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
ROCKETS
100%
WARRIORS --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
245.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.2
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.2 points (Golden State)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

73.1%

Rockets Cover

26.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -6.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

GS By 1-7 points

26.8%

GS By 8-14 points

24.5%

HOU By 1-7 points

16.7%

HOU By 8-14 points

6.7%

AI Model Projected Score
125.57
GOLDEN STATE
119.41
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
GOLDEN STATE
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.2
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 245.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 HOU @ GS 117 - 116
Mar 5, 2026 GS @ HOU 115 - 113
Nov 26, 2025 HOU @ GS 104 - 100
May 4, 2025 GS @ HOU 103 - 89
May 2, 2025 HOU @ GS 115 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +41.1% more
Golden State: 12.2 vs Houston: 7.2
Free Throw % (L5) +13.2%
Golden State: 80.5% vs Houston: 67.3%
Blocks (L5) +16.0% more
Houston: 4.7 vs Golden State: 4.1
Rebounding (L5) +11.4% more
Houston: 43.6 vs Golden State: 39.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 125.6 95
HOU Score 119.4 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.5 / 37.4 20.7 / 37.5
Assists 26.9 / 29.1 19.0 / 20.0
Blocks 4.7 / 4.1 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.2 / 46.6 39.1 / 47.4
Free Throw % 67.3 / 80.5 55.0 / 78.6
Rebounding 43.6 / 39.2 52.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.2 / 12.2 9.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 13.3 17.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
HOU Advantage
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
GS
HOU
GS
ML
61% 69-44
55% 95-79
59% 51-35
58% 49-35
ATS
62% 70-43
58% 101-73
59% 51-35
58% 49-35
TTL
51% 58-55
77% 134-40
100% 86-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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