Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Warriors HOU @ GS

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

1-1  |  Road

93
FINAL
Sat, Apr 26 • 8:30 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

1-1  |  Home

104
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
📊
WARRIORS
100%
ROCKETS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Houston)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

55.4%

Warriors Cover

44.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-7 points

26.5%

HOU By 8-14 points

17.5%

GS By 1-7 points

23.9%

GS By 8-14 points

13.2%

AI Model Projected Score
114.08
HOUSTON
112.73
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
HOUSTON
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockets (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.3
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 226.8
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 HOU @ GS 117 - 116
Mar 5, 2026 GS @ HOU 115 - 113
Nov 26, 2025 HOU @ GS 104 - 100
May 4, 2025 GS @ HOU 103 - 89
May 2, 2025 HOU @ GS 115 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +21.9% more
Houston: 46.6 vs Golden State: 36.4
Steals (L5) +32.6% more
Golden State: 10.9 vs Houston: 8.2
Free Throw % (L5) +4.8%
Golden State: 73.6% vs Houston: 68.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.9%
Golden State: 38.1% vs Houston: 34.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 114.1 93
GS Score 112.7 104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.1 / 34.2 31.1 / 39.3
Assists 24.7 / 23.2 26.0 / 19.0
Blocks 4.0 / 4.1 6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 44.8 43.3 / 39.5
Free Throw % 73.6 / 68.8 80.0 / 58.3
Rebounding 36.4 / 46.6 45.0 / 51.0
Steals 10.9 / 8.2 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 14.0 / 14.2 10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
HOU
GS
HOU
ML
55% 95-79
61% 69-44
58% 49-35
59% 51-35
ATS
58% 101-73
62% 70-43
58% 49-35
59% 51-35
TTL
77% 134-40
51% 58-55
100% 84-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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