Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Warriors HOU @ GS

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

1-2  |  Road

106
FINAL
Mon, Apr 28 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

2-1  |  Home

109
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
ROCKETS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Golden State)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

46.6%

Warriors Cover

53.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

HOU By 1-7 points

24.4%

HOU By 8-14 points

13.9%

GS By 1-7 points

26.1%

GS By 8-14 points

16.7%

AI Model Projected Score
109.3
HOUSTON
110.16
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
HOUSTON
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.9
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 219.5
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 HOU @ GS 117 - 116
Mar 5, 2026 GS @ HOU 115 - 113
Nov 26, 2025 HOU @ GS 104 - 100
May 4, 2025 GS @ HOU 103 - 89
May 2, 2025 HOU @ GS 115 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +43.6% more
Golden State: 10.2 vs Houston: 7.1
Assists (L5) +15.3% more
Golden State: 25.1 vs Houston: 21.8
Free Throw % (L5) +10.4%
Golden State: 75.7% vs Houston: 65.3%
Rebounding (L5) +18.3% more
Houston: 48.1 vs Golden State: 39.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 109.3 106
GS Score 110.2 109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 35.9 37.0 / 47.8
Assists 25.1 / 21.8 27.0 / 18.0
Blocks 4.7 / 4.7 2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 43.0 41.9 / 49.4
Free Throw % 75.7 / 65.3 90.9 / 61.3
Rebounding 39.3 / 48.1 34.0 / 41.0
Steals 10.2 / 7.1 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 14.5 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
HOU
GS
HOU
ML
55% 95-79
61% 69-44
58% 49-35
59% 51-35
ATS
58% 101-73
62% 70-43
58% 49-35
59% 51-35
TTL
77% 134-40
51% 58-55
100% 84-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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