Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Rockets GS @ HOU

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

3-3  |  Road

103
FINAL
Sun, May 4 • 8:30 PM ET
Toyota Center
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

3-3  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
ROCKETS
0%
WARRIORS --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Houston)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

39.7%

Rockets Cover

60.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

GS By 1-7 points

22.2%

GS By 8-14 points

11.2%

HOU By 1-7 points

27.1%

HOU By 8-14 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
109.26
GOLDEN STATE
111.87
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
GOLDEN STATE
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.6
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 221.1
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 HOU @ GS 117 - 116
Mar 5, 2026 GS @ HOU 115 - 113
Nov 26, 2025 HOU @ GS 104 - 100
May 4, 2025 GS @ HOU 103 - 89
May 2, 2025 HOU @ GS 115 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +14.8% more
Houston: 5.5 vs Golden State: 4.8
Steals (L5) +8.6% more
Houston: 9.0 vs Golden State: 8.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.8%
Houston: 40.7% vs Golden State: 33.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.9%
Houston: 47.3% vs Golden State: 42.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 109.3 103
HOU Score 111.9 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.7 / 33.9 33.3 / 41.9
Assists 21.9 / 25.7 14.0 / 24.0
Blocks 5.5 / 4.8 5.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 42.3 40.5 / 47.6
Free Throw % 71.0 / 78.3 71.4 / 77.8
Rebounding 44.3 / 41.6 52.0 / 38.0
Steals 9.0 / 8.3 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 14.0 11.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
HOU Advantage
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
GS
HOU
GS
ML
61% 69-44
55% 95-79
59% 51-35
58% 49-35
ATS
62% 70-43
58% 101-73
59% 51-35
58% 49-35
TTL
51% 58-55
77% 134-40
100% 86-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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