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DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

12-21  |  Road

122
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 10:30 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

13-19  |  Home

125
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
MAVERICKS --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
252.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Portland)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

42.1%

Trail Blazers Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around POR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)

DAL By 1-7 points

23.0%

DAL By 8-14 points

12.2%

POR By 1-7 points

26.8%

POR By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
125
DALLAS
127
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
105
DALLAS
118
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trail Blazers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Trail Blazers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o232.5 Win
Proj Total: 252.0
D
Sim u232.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 27, 2026 DAL @ POR 100 - 93
Dec 29, 2025 DAL @ POR 122 - 125
Nov 16, 2025 POR @ DAL 133 - 138
Jan 9, 2025 POR @ DAL 111 - 117
Dec 28, 2024 DAL @ POR 122 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +14.7% more
Portland: 18.2 vs Dallas: 15.9
Steals (L5) +12.3% more
Portland: 7.3 vs Dallas: 6.5
Blocks (L5) +40.4% more
Dallas: 6.2 vs Portland: 3.7
Free Throw % (L5) +6.7%
Dallas: 73.7% vs Portland: 67.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 125.0 122
POR Score 127.0 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 36.7 39.0 / 34.0
Assists 24.1 / 24.5 27.0 / 33.0
Blocks 3.7 / 6.2 3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 50.3 47.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 67.0 / 73.7 77.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 44.8 / 46.1 48.0 / 41.0
Steals 7.3 / 6.5 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 18.2 / 15.9 16.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
DAL
POR
DAL
ML
53% 56-49
62% 63-39
55% 49-40
54% 44-37
ATS
62% 65-39-1
67% 68-34
55% 49-40
54% 44-37
TTL
56% 58-46-1
59% 60-41-1
100% 89-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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