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ALABAMA STATE

HORNETSALST

3-9  |  Road

56
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 7:30 PM ET
Humphrey Coliseum
View Odds Details →

MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

7-5  |  Home

94
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
HORNETS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Mississippi State)
HornetsALST (-3.5) 0 BulldogsMSST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

0.0%

Bulldogs Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSST -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)

ALST By 1-7 points

0.0%

ALST By 8-14 points

0.0%

MSST By 1-7 points

0.1%

MSST By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
49
ALABAMA STATE
87
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Simulated Score
58
ALABAMA STATE
85
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (-18.5) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 29, 2025 ALST @ MSST 56 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +28.2% more
Mississippi State: 3.5 vs Alabama State: 2.7
Field Goal % (L5) +6.6%
Mississippi State: 45.5% vs Alabama State: 38.9%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.8%
Mississippi State: 66.1% vs Alabama State: 63.2%
Turnovers (L5) +13.8% more
Alabama State: 12.7 vs Mississippi State: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALST Score 49.0 56
MSST Score 87.0 94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.2 / 32.4 40.0 / 26.0
Assists 11.6 / 11.6 19.0 / 3.0
Blocks 3.5 / 2.7 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 38.9 54.0 / 28.0
Free Throw % 66.1 / 63.2 71.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 37.5 / 34.8 49.0 / 27.0
Steals 6.9 / 6.7 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 12.7 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
MSST Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALST Advantage
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
MSST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSST
ALST
MSST
ALST
ML
66% 21-11
65% 20-11
55% 17-14
76% 19-6
ATS
56% 18-14
65% 20-11
55% 17-14
76% 19-6
TTL
59% 19-13
52% 16-15
100% 31-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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