ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
15-18 | Road
129
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
27-5 | Home
140
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
THUNDER
0%
HAWKS
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
ATL By 1-7 points
4.8%
ATL By 8-14 points
1.1%
OKC By 1-7 points
15.3%
OKC By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
110
ATLANTA
Oklahoma City
125
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
Atlanta
115
ATLANTA
Oklahoma City
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunder (+17)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Thunder (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o232.5
Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 29, 2025
ATL @ OKC
129 - 140
Oct 25, 2025
OKC @ ATL
117 - 100
Feb 28, 2025
OKC @ ATL
135 - 119
Oct 27, 2024
ATL @ OKC
104 - 128
Oct 17, 2024
ATL @ OKC
99 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+45.2% more
Oklahoma City: 9.9
vs
Atlanta: 6.8
Blocks (L5)
+27.9% more
Oklahoma City: 5.1
vs
Atlanta: 4.0
Assists (L5)
+24.9% more
Atlanta: 32.1
vs
Oklahoma City: 24.1
Turnovers (L5)
+17.7% more
Atlanta: 14.7
vs
Oklahoma City: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
110.0
129
OKC Score
125.0
140
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.2 / 36.9
38.0 / 46.0
Assists
24.1 / 32.1
27.0 / 32.0
Blocks
5.1 / 4.0
7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.6 / 48.1
54.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
78.5 / 80.5
96.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
41.3 / 39.2
49.0 / 38.0
Steals
9.9 / 6.8
9.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 14.7
14.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
ATL
OKC
ATL
ML
70%
80-34
50%
52-52
48%
46-49
55%
48-40
ATS
73%
83-30-1
53%
55-48-1
48%
46-49
55%
48-40
TTL
67%
76-38
53%
55-48-1
100%
95-0
100%
88-0
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