Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Heat DEN @ MIA

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

22-9  |  Road

123
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 7:30 PM ET
Kaseya Center
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

HEATMIA

17-15  |  Home

147
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
📊
HEAT
0%
NUGGETS --
HEAT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
247.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Miami)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 HeatMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

9.7%

Heat Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

DEN By 1-7 points

6.8%

DEN By 8-14 points

1.7%

MIA By 1-7 points

18.6%

MIA By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
117
DENVER
130
MIAMI
Simulated Score
106
DENVER
112
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Heat Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Heat Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Heat (+2) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Heat (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o244.0 Win
Proj Total: 247.0
D
Sim u244.0 Win
Proj Total: 218.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 29, 2025 DEN @ MIA 123 - 147
Nov 5, 2025 MIA @ DEN 112 - 122
Jan 17, 2025 DEN @ MIA 133 - 113
Nov 8, 2024 MIA @ DEN 122 - 135
Mar 13, 2024 DEN @ MIA 100 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +90.8% more
Miami: 12.6 vs Denver: 6.6
Turnovers (L5) +13.6% more
Denver: 14.8 vs Miami: 12.8
Assists (L5) +9.9% more
Denver: 30.6 vs Miami: 27.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.9%
Denver: 42.3% vs Miami: 35.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 117.0 123
MIA Score 130.0 147
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.4 / 42.3 48.0 / 35.0
Assists 27.6 / 30.6 40.0 / 29.0
Blocks 3.3 / 3.5 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.6 / 50.6 54.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 87.3 / 88.3 83.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 47.4 / 44.3 46.0 / 36.0
Steals 12.6 / 6.6 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 14.8 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
MIA
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
DEN
MIA
DEN
ML
48% 46-50
54% 57-48
59% 48-34
55% 47-39
ATS
51% 49-47
63% 65-38-2
59% 48-34
55% 47-39
TTL
59% 57-39
54% 56-48-1
100% 82-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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