UNC WILMINGTON
SEAHAWKSUNCW
11-2 | Road
87
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
AGGIESNCAT
7-4 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
SEAHAWKS
100%
AGGIES
0%
SEAHAWKS
--
AGGIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
168.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-60.0
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +60.0 points (North Carolina A&T)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NCAT -60.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCAT)
UNCW By 1-7 points
0.0%
UNCW By 8-14 points
0.0%
NCAT By 1-7 points
0.0%
NCAT By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UNC Wilmington
54
UNC WILMINGTON
North Carolina A&T
114
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Simulated Score
UNC Wilmington
65
UNC WILMINGTON
North Carolina A&T
78
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Aggies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aggies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Aggies (+11)
Win
Proj Spread: -60.0
D
Sim
Aggies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o146.0
Win
Proj Total: 168.0
D
Sim
u146.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
NCAT @ UNCW
65 - 88
Dec 29, 2025
UNCW @ NCAT
87 - 78
Jan 30, 2025
UNCW @ NCAT
83 - 59
Feb 15, 2024
NCAT @ UNCW
54 - 73
Feb 2, 2023
NCAT @ UNCW
63 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+251.3% more
North Carolina A&T: 5.5
vs
UNC Wilmington: 1.6
Turnovers (L5)
+22.4% more
North Carolina A&T: 12.4
vs
UNC Wilmington: 10.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.9%
North Carolina A&T: 72.3%
vs
UNC Wilmington: 68.3%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
North Carolina A&T: 46.8%
vs
UNC Wilmington: 44.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNCW Score
54.0
87
NCAT Score
114.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.8 / 32.1
32.0 / 42.0
Assists
14.8 / 14.0
11.0 / 15.0
Blocks
5.5 / 1.6
3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 44.9
44.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
72.3 / 68.3
71.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
44.5 / 43.8
30.0 / 42.0
Steals
4.0 / 6.8
7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 10.1
8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCW
Advantage
27-7-0
(79.4%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
NCAT
11-19-0
(36.7%)
Margin: -2.8
ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCW
16-14-2
(53.3%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
NCAT
Advantage
16-12-0
(57.1%)
Margin: -2.8
ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCW
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: -2.3
NCAT
16-12-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCAT
UNCW
NCAT
UNCW
ML
52%
14-13
64%
21-12
63%
17-10
52%
17-16
ATS
63%
17-10
58%
19-14
64%
18-10
52%
17-16
TTL
69%
18-8-1
61%
20-13
100%
28-0
100%
33-0
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