MANHATTAN
JASPERSMAN
5-8 | Road
74
RIDER
BRONCSRID
1-10 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
JASPERS
0%
BRONCS
100%
JASPERS
--
BRONCS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
122.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-36.0
MANHATTAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +36.0 points (Manhattan)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MAN -36.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MAN)
MAN By 1-7 points
0.2%
MAN By 8-14 points
1.4%
RID By 1-7 points
0.0%
RID By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Manhattan
79
MANHATTAN
Rider
43
RIDER
Simulated Score
Manhattan
68
MANHATTAN
Rider
72
RIDER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Jaspers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Broncs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Jaspers (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -36.0
D
Sim
Broncs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 122.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 30, 2026
RID @ MAN
90 - 95
Dec 29, 2025
MAN @ RID
74 - 71
Jan 5, 2025
MAN @ RID
80 - 79
Feb 18, 2024
RID @ MAN
104 - 62
Jan 12, 2024
MAN @ RID
58 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+37.3% more
Manhattan: 8.6
vs
Rider: 5.4
Assists (L5)
+31.7% more
Manhattan: 14.7
vs
Rider: 10.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.4%
Manhattan: 31.6%
vs
Rider: 25.2%
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.5%
Manhattan: 76.4%
vs
Rider: 70.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MAN Score
79.0
74
RID Score
43.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
25.2 / 31.6
30.0 / 35.0
Assists
10.0 / 14.7
17.0 / 6.0
Blocks
3.4 / 2.8
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
39.6 / 43.4
41.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
70.9 / 76.4
62.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
34.5 / 32.0
43.0 / 40.0
Steals
5.4 / 8.6
7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 10.5
12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MAN
Advantage
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: -3.1
RID
4-25-0
(13.8%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MAN
Advantage
11-19-1
(36.7%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: -3.1
RID
7-18-3
(28.0%)
Margin: -12.6
ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MAN
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: +2.4
RID
9-19-0
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RID
MAN
RID
MAN
ML
72%
21-8
52%
16-15
66%
19-10
68%
21-10
ATS
72%
21-8
52%
16-15
66%
19-10
69%
22-10
TTL
62%
18-11
77%
24-7
100%
29-0
100%
32-0
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