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TARLETON STATE

TEXANSTAR

9-4  |  Road

69
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 8:00 PM ET
College Park Center
View Odds Details →

UT ARLINGTON

MAVERICKSUTA

8-4  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
TEXANS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
TARLETON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Tarleton State)
TexansTAR (-3.5) 0 MavericksUTA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

86.4%

Mavericks Cover

13.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TAR -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TAR)

TAR By 1-7 points

21.6%

TAR By 8-14 points

27.4%

UTA By 1-7 points

9.3%

UTA By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
79
TARLETON STATE
68
UT ARLINGTON
Simulated Score
69
TARLETON STATE
73
UT ARLINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texans (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o136.5 Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 UTA @ TAR 65 - 60
Jan 21, 2026 TAR @ UTA 64 - 71
Dec 29, 2025 TAR @ UTA 69 - 63
Feb 22, 2025 TAR @ UTA 57 - 67
Jan 4, 2025 UTA @ TAR 74 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +48.8% more
Tarleton State: 14.7 vs UT Arlington: 7.5
Assists (L5) +27.5% more
Tarleton State: 15.2 vs UT Arlington: 11.0
Turnovers (L5) +18.5% more
Tarleton State: 16.8 vs UT Arlington: 13.7
Rebounding (L5) +14.1% more
Tarleton State: 38.6 vs UT Arlington: 33.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TAR Score 79.0 69
UTA Score 68.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.5 / 40.1 31.0 / 31.0
Assists 11.0 / 15.2 11.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.8 / 2.2 2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 49.5 42.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 68.4 / 74.0 71.0 / 46.0
Rebounding 33.2 / 38.6 38.0 / 27.0
Steals 7.5 / 14.7 2.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 16.8 18.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TAR
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
UTA Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TAR
14-14-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
UTA Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +4.8
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTA
TAR
UTA
TAR
ML
50% 16-16
59% 19-13
62% 20-12
66% 21-11
ATS
59% 19-13
69% 22-10
62% 20-12
66% 21-11
TTL
53% 17-15
50% 16-16
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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