Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Seawolves @ Pirates STBK @ HAMP

STONY BROOK

SEAWOLVESSTBK

8-5  |  Road

59
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Convocation Center (VA)
View Odds Details →

HAMPTON

PIRATESHAMP

6-7  |  Home

62
AI Model Win Probability
SEAWOLVES
100%
📊
PIRATES
0%
SEAWOLVES --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
HAMPTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Hampton)
SeawolvesSTBK (-3.5) 0 PiratesHAMP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Seawolves Cover

46.0%

Pirates Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HAMP -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HAMP)

STBK By 1-7 points

24.3%

STBK By 8-14 points

13.7%

HAMP By 1-7 points

26.2%

HAMP By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
67
STONY BROOK
68
HAMPTON
Simulated Score
67
STONY BROOK
71
HAMPTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pirates Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pirates (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Pirates (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 HAMP @ STBK 72 - 79
Dec 29, 2025 STBK @ HAMP 59 - 62
Feb 24, 2025 STBK @ HAMP 49 - 81
Feb 15, 2024 HAMP @ STBK 73 - 93
Jan 28, 2023 STBK @ HAMP 71 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +25.8% more
Hampton: 7.9 vs Stony Brook: 6.3
Assists (L5) +25.5% more
Hampton: 13.5 vs Stony Brook: 10.7
Blocks (L5) +10.0% more
Hampton: 3.1 vs Stony Brook: 2.8
Free Throw % (L5) +5.7%
Hampton: 73.9% vs Stony Brook: 68.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STBK Score 67.0 59
HAMP Score 68.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.5 / 33.5 15.0 / 42.0
Assists 13.5 / 10.7 11.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.1 / 2.8 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 43.7 / 38.4 46.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 73.9 / 68.2 58.0 / 45.0
Rebounding 35.0 / 35.6 32.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.9 / 6.3 11.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 12.4 11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
11%MONEY89%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STBK Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
HAMP
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STBK Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
HAMP
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
STBK
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
HAMP
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HAMP
STBK
HAMP
STBK
ML
53% 17-15
61% 19-12
75% 24-8
71% 22-9
ATS
50% 16-16
61% 19-12
75% 24-8
71% 22-9
TTL
68% 21-10-1
65% 20-11
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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