Home / NBA Projections NBA / Knicks @ Pelicans NY @ NO

NEW YORK

KNICKSNY

22-9  |  Road

130
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

8-25  |  Home

125
AI Model Win Probability
KNICKS
100%
📊
PELICANS
0%
KNICKS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
250.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (New Orleans)
KnicksNY (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knicks Cover

34.5%

Pelicans Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NO -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

NY By 1-7 points

20.1%

NY By 8-14 points

9.3%

NO By 1-7 points

27.4%

NO By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
123
NEW YORK
127
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
108
NEW YORK
115
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pelicans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pelicans (+8) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o246.5 Win
Proj Total: 250.0
D
Sim u246.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 24, 2026 NO @ NY 116 - 121
Dec 29, 2025 NY @ NO 130 - 125
Dec 21, 2024 NY @ NO 104 - 93
Dec 1, 2024 NO @ NY 85 - 118
Feb 27, 2024 NO @ NY 115 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +22.0% more
New Orleans: 10.0 vs New York: 8.2
Blocks (L5) +10.9% more
New Orleans: 4.2 vs New York: 3.8
Assists (L5) +15.8% more
New York: 26.3 vs New Orleans: 22.2
Rebounding (L5) +12.8% more
New York: 49.7 vs New Orleans: 43.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NY Score 123.0 130
NO Score 127.0 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.8 / 39.8 39.0 / 45.0
Assists 22.2 / 26.3 27.0 / 35.0
Blocks 4.2 / 3.8 8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 46.4 46.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 80.2 / 79.0 85.0 / 95.0
Rebounding 43.4 / 49.7 50.0 / 42.0
Steals 10.0 / 8.2 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 14.6 12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NY Advantage
70-32-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NY Advantage
58-44-0 (56.9%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
NO
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NY
47-55-0
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9% Total +/-: -1.4
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
NY
NO
NY
ML
62% 98-61
61% 114-72
58% 48-35
56% 57-45
ATS
68% 107-51-1
67% 124-62
58% 48-35
56% 57-45
TTL
75% 119-40
72% 133-53
100% 83-0
100% 102-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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