Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Retrievers @ Eagles UMBC @ COPP

UMBC

RETRIEVERSUMBC

6-6  |  Road

93
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 6:00 PM ET
Physical Education Complex
View Odds Details →

COPPIN STATE

EAGLESCOPP

2-14  |  Home

59
AI Model Win Probability
RETRIEVERS
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
RETRIEVERS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
COPPIN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Coppin State)
RetrieversUMBC (-3.5) 0 EaglesCOPP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Retrievers Cover

5.5%

Eagles Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around COPP -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COPP)

UMBC By 1-7 points

4.0%

UMBC By 8-14 points

0.8%

COPP By 1-7 points

13.7%

COPP By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
59
UMBC
75
COPPIN STATE
Simulated Score
71
UMBC
76
COPPIN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (+10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 29, 2025 UMBC @ COPP 93 - 59
Nov 14, 2024 COPP @ UMBC 67 - 92
Nov 30, 2023 UMBC @ COPP 70 - 89
Nov 30, 2022 COPP @ UMBC 82 - 109
Dec 13, 2020 UMBC @ COPP 66 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +35.5% more
Coppin State: 5.7 vs UMBC: 4.2
Turnovers (L5) +28.6% more
Coppin State: 15.2 vs UMBC: 11.8
Assists (L5) +14.2% more
UMBC: 14.0 vs Coppin State: 12.0
Rebounding (L5) +9.9% more
UMBC: 32.8 vs Coppin State: 29.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UMBC Score 59.0 93
COPP Score 75.0 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.3 / 32.1 32.0 / 48.0
Assists 12.0 / 14.0 11.0 / 22.0
Blocks 3.7 / 3.6 7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 40.0 / 45.8 37.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 66.4 / 70.5 67.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 29.6 / 32.8 28.0 / 45.0
Steals 5.7 / 4.2 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 15.2 / 11.8 14.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
24%MONEY76%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UMBC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +6.0
COPP
7-24-0 (22.6%)
Margin: -14.9 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UMBC Advantage
19-12-0 (61.3%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +6.0
COPP
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: -14.9 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -0.5
COPP
19-11-0
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COPP
UMBC
COPP
UMBC
ML
65% 20-11
58% 18-13
79% 19-5
55% 17-14
ATS
68% 21-10
68% 21-10
79% 19-5
55% 17-14
TTL
52% 16-15
39% 12-19
100% 24-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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