Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / River Hawks @ Hawkeyes UML @ IOWA

UMASS LOWELL

RIVER HAWKSUML

5-9  |  Road

62
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 5:00 PM ET
Carver-Hawkeye Arena
View Odds Details →

IOWA

HAWKEYESIOWA

10-2  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
RIVER HAWKS
100%
📊
HAWKEYES
0%
RIVER HAWKS --
HAWKEYES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Iowa)
River HawksUML (-3.5) 0 HawkeyesIOWA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

River Hawks Cover

24.2%

Hawkeyes Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IOWA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IOWA)

UML By 1-7 points

15.3%

UML By 8-14 points

5.8%

IOWA By 1-7 points

26.2%

IOWA By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
74
UMASS LOWELL
81
IOWA
Simulated Score
68
UMASS LOWELL
82
IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hawkeyes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hawkeyes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hawkeyes (+33.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Hawkeyes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 29, 2025 UML @ IOWA 62 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +61.2% more
Iowa: 10.7 vs UMass Lowell: 6.7
Assists (L5) +31.3% more
Iowa: 18.1 vs UMass Lowell: 13.8
Free Throw % (L5) +13.5%
Iowa: 69.8% vs UMass Lowell: 56.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.9%
Iowa: 54.2% vs UMass Lowell: 50.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UML Score 74.0 62
IOWA Score 81.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.3 / 38.3 29.0 / 38.0
Assists 18.1 / 13.8 20.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.9 / 2.8 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 54.2 / 50.3 58.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 69.8 / 56.3 92.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 33.6 / 35.2 29.0 / 25.0
Steals 10.7 / 6.7 10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.7 / 12.3 7.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UML
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.3
IOWA Advantage
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UML
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -0.3
IOWA Advantage
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UML
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.2
IOWA
20-17-0
O: 54.1% / U: 46.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IOWA
UML
IOWA
UML
ML
59% 22-15
70% 23-10
78% 28-8
58% 19-14
ATS
76% 28-9
70% 23-10
78% 28-8
58% 19-14
TTL
57% 21-16
58% 19-14
100% 36-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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