LAMAR
CARDINALSLAM
5-6 | Road
76
NORTHWESTERN STATE
DEMONSNWST
3-8 | Home
61
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
0%
DEMONS
100%
CARDINALS
--
DEMONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
168.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
LAMAR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Lamar)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAM -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAM)
LAM By 1-7 points
8.0%
LAM By 8-14 points
18.6%
NWST By 1-7 points
1.7%
NWST By 8-14 points
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Lamar
94
LAMAR
Northwestern State
74
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Simulated Score
Lamar
72
LAMAR
Northwestern State
78
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Demons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Demons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o139.5
Loss
Proj Total: 168.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 9, 2026
NWST @ LAM
70 - 68
Dec 29, 2025
LAM @ NWST
76 - 61
Feb 17, 2025
LAM @ NWST
75 - 65
Jan 27, 2025
NWST @ LAM
59 - 69
Mar 2, 2024
LAM @ NWST
82 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+75.6% more
Lamar: 5.5
vs
Northwestern State: 1.3
Assists (L5)
+26.5% more
Lamar: 16.3
vs
Northwestern State: 12.0
Steals (L5)
+22.9% more
Lamar: 8.3
vs
Northwestern State: 6.4
Rebounding (L5)
+19.8% more
Lamar: 36.0
vs
Northwestern State: 28.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAM Score
94.0
76
NWST Score
74.0
61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.6 / 28.7
36.0 / 39.0
Assists
12.0 / 16.3
10.0 / 13.0
Blocks
1.3 / 5.5
0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.7 / 42.3
40.0 / 57.0
Free Throw %
78.0 / 70.2
64.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
28.8 / 36.0
25.0 / 34.0
Steals
6.4 / 8.3
8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
14.3 / 12.5
13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAM
Advantage
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: -1.5
NWST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAM
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-: -1.5
NWST
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LAM
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -1.1
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NWST
LAM
NWST
LAM
ML
68%
21-10
55%
16-13
77%
23-7
59%
17-12
ATS
68%
21-10
52%
15-14
77%
23-7
60%
18-12
TTL
39%
12-19
72%
21-8
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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