Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Gaels @ Mountaineers IONA @ MSM

IONA

GAELSIONA

9-4  |  Road

59
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Knott Arena
View Odds Details →

MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

4-9  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
GAELS
0%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
GAELS --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
IONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Iona)
GaelsIONA (-3.5) 0 MountaineersMSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Gaels Cover

75.8%

Mountaineers Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IONA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IONA)

IONA By 1-7 points

26.2%

IONA By 8-14 points

25.3%

MSM By 1-7 points

15.3%

MSM By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
84
IONA
77
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Simulated Score
68
IONA
75
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Gaels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Gaels (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 MSM @ IONA 83 - 76
Dec 29, 2025 IONA @ MSM 59 - 66
Mar 15, 2025 MSM @ IONA 63 - 49
Feb 6, 2025 IONA @ MSM 70 - 67
Feb 25, 2024 IONA @ MSM 65 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +14.8%
Iona: 75.2% vs Mount St. Mary's: 60.4%
Turnovers (L5) +90.0% more
Mount St. Mary's: 17.7 vs Iona: 9.3
Blocks (L5) +79.5% more
Mount St. Mary's: 4.5 vs Iona: 2.5
Assists (L5) +75.3% more
Mount St. Mary's: 18.0 vs Iona: 10.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IONA Score 84.0 59
MSM Score 77.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 33.8 18.0 / 26.0
Assists 18.0 / 10.3 13.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.5 / 2.5 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.9 / 46.1 47.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 60.4 / 75.2 60.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 33.9 43.0 / 36.0
Steals 10.8 / 7.5 12.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 17.7 / 9.3 16.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
6%MONEY94%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IONA Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: 0.0
MSM
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IONA Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: 0.0
MSM
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
IONA
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -1.6
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSM
IONA
MSM
IONA
ML
53% 17-15
41% 13-19
61% 19-12
62% 20-12
ATS
62% 20-12
53% 17-15
61% 19-12
62% 20-12
TTL
81% 26-6
66% 21-11
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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