NORTHERN KENTUCKY
NORSENKU
9-5 | Road
79
ROBERT MORRIS
COLONIALSRMU
10-4 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
NORSE
0%
COLONIALS
100%
NORSE
--
COLONIALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Northern Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NKU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NKU)
NKU By 1-7 points
26.2%
NKU By 8-14 points
25.3%
RMU By 1-7 points
15.3%
RMU By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Kentucky
89
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Robert Morris
82
ROBERT MORRIS
Simulated Score
Northern Kentucky
72
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Robert Morris
78
ROBERT MORRIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Norse
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Colonials
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Norse (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Colonials (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Win
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
RMU @ NKU
92 - 89
Dec 29, 2025
NKU @ RMU
79 - 77
Feb 8, 2025
RMU @ NKU
81 - 76
Dec 29, 2024
NKU @ RMU
93 - 97
Feb 28, 2024
NKU @ RMU
70 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+75.8% more
Northern Kentucky: 3.7
vs
Robert Morris: 0.9
Steals (L5)
+51.4% more
Northern Kentucky: 9.5
vs
Robert Morris: 4.6
Turnovers (L5)
+21.0% more
Northern Kentucky: 13.5
vs
Robert Morris: 10.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.2%
Northern Kentucky: 77.7%
vs
Robert Morris: 71.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NKU Score
89.0
79
RMU Score
82.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.0 / 29.9
38.0 / 25.0
Assists
16.9 / 14.3
23.0 / 12.0
Blocks
0.9 / 3.7
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
47.1 / 44.0
46.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
71.5 / 77.7
50.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
36.2 / 35.8
38.0 / 28.0
Steals
4.6 / 9.5
3.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
10.7 / 13.5
15.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NKU
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
RMU
Advantage
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NKU
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
RMU
Advantage
19-11-1
(63.3%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NKU
21-10-0
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3%
Total +/-: +5.4
RMU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RMU
NKU
RMU
NKU
ML
36%
12-21
53%
18-16
56%
18-14
65%
22-12
ATS
55%
18-15
56%
19-15
56%
18-14
65%
22-12
TTL
55%
18-15
68%
23-11
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
