YALE
BULLDOGSYALE
11-1 | Road
78
ALABAMA
CRIMSON TIDEALA
9-3 | Home
102
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
CRIMSON TIDE
0%
BULLDOGS
--
CRIMSON TIDE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Alabama)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ALA -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)
YALE By 1-7 points
4.0%
YALE By 8-14 points
0.8%
ALA By 1-7 points
13.7%
ALA By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Yale
71
YALE
Alabama
87
ALABAMA
Simulated Score
Yale
70
YALE
Alabama
82
ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Crimson Tide
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Crimson Tide
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Crimson Tide (-14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Crimson Tide (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u171.5
Loss
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
u171.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 29, 2025
YALE @ ALA
78 - 102
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+175.7% more
Alabama: 8.3
vs
Yale: 3.0
Steals (L5)
+69.9% more
Alabama: 8.0
vs
Yale: 4.7
Turnovers (L5)
+17.7% more
Alabama: 10.6
vs
Yale: 9.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.6%
Alabama: 78.4%
vs
Yale: 76.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
YALE Score
71.0
78
ALA Score
87.0
102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.2 / 39.9
41.0 / 39.0
Assists
16.3 / 18.5
22.0 / 10.0
Blocks
8.3 / 3.0
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.1 / 49.7
44.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
78.4 / 76.8
75.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
42.3 / 41.0
46.0 / 38.0
Steals
8.0 / 4.7
4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 9.0
5.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
YALE
Advantage
24-7-0
(77.4%)
Margin: 10.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
ALA
25-10-0
(71.4%)
Margin: 8.5
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
YALE
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 10.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
ALA
Advantage
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: 8.5
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
YALE
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +1.1
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
YALE
ALA
YALE
ML
63%
22-13
48%
15-16
58%
19-14
58%
18-13
ATS
60%
21-14
65%
20-11
58%
19-14
58%
18-13
TTL
63%
22-13
61%
19-12
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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