Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Chargers @ Commodores NHVN @ VAN

NEW HAVEN

CHARGERSNHVN

5-7  |  Road

53
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Memorial Gymnasium (TN)
View Odds Details →

VANDERBILT

COMMODORESVAN

12-0  |  Home

96
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
100%
📊
COMMODORES
0%
CHARGERS --
COMMODORES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Vanderbilt)
ChargersNHVN (-3.5) 0 CommodoresVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chargers Cover

24.2%

Commodores Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VAN -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

NHVN By 1-7 points

15.3%

NHVN By 8-14 points

5.8%

VAN By 1-7 points

26.2%

VAN By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
66
NEW HAVEN
73
VANDERBILT
Simulated Score
57
NEW HAVEN
82
VANDERBILT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Commodores Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Commodores Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Commodores (+39.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Commodores (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 29, 2025 NHVN @ VAN 53 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +156.9% more
Vanderbilt: 5.0 vs New Haven: 2.0
Assists (L5) +54.2% more
Vanderbilt: 18.9 vs New Haven: 12.2
Steals (L5) +47.0% more
Vanderbilt: 12.1 vs New Haven: 8.2
Free Throw % (L5) +17.3%
Vanderbilt: 77.5% vs New Haven: 60.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NHVN Score 66.0 53
VAN Score 73.0 96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 26.3 46.0 / 13.0
Assists 18.9 / 12.2 24.0 / 10.0
Blocks 5.0 / 2.0 9.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.7 / 41.3 58.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 77.5 / 60.2 92.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 37.1 / 33.5 41.0 / 22.0
Steals 12.1 / 8.2 10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 11.3 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NHVN
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
VAN Advantage
27-9-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NHVN Advantage
15-13-0 (53.6%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: +1.3
VAN
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
NHVN
8-20-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -3.5
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
NHVN
VAN
NHVN
ML
69% 25-11
71% 22-9
56% 18-14
68% 21-10
ATS
78% 28-8
74% 23-8
56% 18-14
68% 21-10
TTL
58% 21-15
42% 13-18
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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