SAINT PETER'S
PEACOCKSSPU
5-5 | Road
70
FAIRFIELD
STAGSFAIR
8-5 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
PEACOCKS
100%
STAGS
0%
PEACOCKS
--
STAGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
120.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
FAIRFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Fairfield)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FAIR -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAIR)
SPU By 1-7 points
10.7%
SPU By 8-14 points
3.3%
FAIR By 1-7 points
23.0%
FAIR By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Saint Peter's
55
SAINT PETER'S
Fairfield
65
FAIRFIELD
Simulated Score
Saint Peter's
68
SAINT PETER'S
Fairfield
72
FAIRFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Stags
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Stags
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Stags (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Stags (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 120.0
D
Sim
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 6, 2026
FAIR @ SPU
74 - 55
Feb 15, 2026
FAIR @ SPU
74 - 83
Dec 29, 2025
SPU @ FAIR
70 - 66
Feb 14, 2025
FAIR @ SPU
52 - 65
Mar 16, 2024
SPU @ FAIR
68 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+46.5% more
Fairfield: 4.6
vs
Saint Peter's: 3.1
Rebounding (L5)
+37.5% more
Fairfield: 44.5
vs
Saint Peter's: 32.3
Assists (L5)
+26.1% more
Fairfield: 14.4
vs
Saint Peter's: 11.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+11.3%
Fairfield: 39.8%
vs
Saint Peter's: 28.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SPU Score
55.0
70
FAIR Score
65.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.8 / 28.5
29.0 / 24.0
Assists
14.4 / 11.4
7.0 / 13.0
Blocks
4.6 / 3.1
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.5 / 39.0
40.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
69.0 / 76.7
74.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
44.5 / 32.3
36.0 / 44.0
Steals
8.2 / 10.9
5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
8.6 / 10.7
12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SPU
17-12-0
(58.6%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: +0.2
FAIR
Advantage
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SPU
Advantage
16-11-1
(59.3%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: +0.2
FAIR
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
SPU
10-18-0
O: 35.7% / U: 64.3%
Total +/-: -0.2
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAIR
SPU
FAIR
SPU
ML
55%
18-15
64%
18-10
61%
20-13
71%
20-8
ATS
48%
16-17
71%
20-8
61%
20-13
71%
20-8
TTL
48%
16-17
61%
17-11
100%
33-0
100%
28-0
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