Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Warriors @ Pioneers MRMK @ SHU

MERRIMACK

WARRIORSMRMK

6-7  |  Road

80
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 2:00 PM ET
William H. Pitt Center
View Odds Details →

SACRED HEART

PIONEERSSHU

5-8  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
PIONEERS
100%
WARRIORS --
PIONEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
111.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
MERRIMACK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Merrimack)
WarriorsMRMK (-3.5) 0 PioneersSHU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

81.6%

Pioneers Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MRMK -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRMK)

MRMK By 1-7 points

24.3%

MRMK By 8-14 points

26.8%

SHU By 1-7 points

12.2%

SHU By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
60
MERRIMACK
51
SACRED HEART
Simulated Score
68
MERRIMACK
75
SACRED HEART
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pioneers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Pioneers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.5 Loss
Proj Total: 111.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 SHU @ MRMK 48 - 70
Feb 1, 2026 SHU @ MRMK 58 - 75
Dec 29, 2025 MRMK @ SHU 80 - 72
Mar 12, 2025 SHU @ MRMK 62 - 66
Feb 21, 2025 SHU @ MRMK 60 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +46.9% more
Merrimack: 5.4 vs Sacred Heart: 2.9
Turnovers (L5) +68.0% more
Sacred Heart: 13.6 vs Merrimack: 8.1
Rebounding (L5) +40.0% more
Sacred Heart: 37.2 vs Merrimack: 26.6
Assists (L5) +27.3% more
Sacred Heart: 13.6 vs Merrimack: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRMK Score 60.0 80
SHU Score 51.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.1 / 30.2 40.0 / 40.0
Assists 13.6 / 10.7 22.0 / 19.0
Blocks 2.9 / 5.4 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 40.5 / 40.6 44.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 83.5 / 80.6 71.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 37.2 / 26.6 38.0 / 29.0
Steals 7.1 / 6.7 3.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 8.1 13.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRMK Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
SHU
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRMK Advantage
19-14-1 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
SHU
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -3.2
SHU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SHU
MRMK
SHU
MRMK
ML
61% 20-13
47% 16-18
73% 24-9
65% 22-12
ATS
76% 25-8
53% 18-16
73% 24-9
65% 22-12
TTL
58% 19-14
62% 21-13
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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