Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Nittany Lions NCCU @ PSU

NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

EAGLESNCCU

4-10  |  Road

67
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 1:00 PM ET
Bryce Jordan Center
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

NITTANY LIONSPSU

8-4  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
NITTANY LIONS
0%
EAGLES --
NITTANY LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
PENN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Penn State)
EaglesNCCU (-3.5) 0 Nittany LionsPSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

0.1%

Nittany Lions Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PSU -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PSU)

NCCU By 1-7 points

0.1%

NCCU By 8-14 points

0.0%

PSU By 1-7 points

0.6%

PSU By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
47
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
79
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
61
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
83
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nittany Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nittany Lions Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nittany Lions (-24.5) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim Nittany Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 29, 2025 NCCU @ PSU 67 - 90
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.7%
Penn State: 28.1% vs North Carolina Central: 20.4%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.0%
Penn State: 74.8% vs North Carolina Central: 72.7%
Steals (L5) +31.0% more
North Carolina Central: 11.3 vs Penn State: 7.8
Assists (L5) +24.9% more
North Carolina Central: 14.4 vs Penn State: 10.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCCU Score 47.0 67
PSU Score 79.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.1 / 20.4 44.0 / 33.0
Assists 10.8 / 14.4 20.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.1 / 3.2 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.5 / 44.7 56.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 74.8 / 72.7 77.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 28.9 / 33.1 22.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.8 / 11.3 13.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 12.8 11.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCCU Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCCU Advantage
15-13-0 (53.6%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NCCU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: +2.1
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
NCCU
PSU
NCCU
ML
72% 23-9
65% 20-11
56% 18-14
81% 22-5
ATS
72% 23-9
71% 22-9
56% 18-14
81% 22-5
TTL
66% 21-11
55% 17-14
100% 32-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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