ILLINOIS STATE
REDBIRDSILST
10-3 | Road
73
DRAKE
BULLDOGSDRKE
7-6 | Home
56
AI Model Win Probability
REDBIRDS
0%
BULLDOGS
100%
REDBIRDS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
ILLINOIS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Illinois State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ILST -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILST)
ILST By 1-7 points
0.3%
ILST By 8-14 points
1.7%
DRKE By 1-7 points
0.0%
DRKE By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Illinois State
95
ILLINOIS STATE
Drake
60
DRAKE
Simulated Score
Illinois State
65
ILLINOIS STATE
Drake
78
DRAKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Redbirds
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Redbirds (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 6, 2026
DRKE @ ILST
76 - 86
Dec 29, 2025
ILST @ DRKE
73 - 56
Feb 12, 2025
DRKE @ ILST
84 - 77
Jan 15, 2025
ILST @ DRKE
62 - 66
Jan 17, 2024
DRKE @ ILST
77 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+30.8% more
Illinois State: 7.3
vs
Drake: 5.1
Assists (L5)
+11.5% more
Illinois State: 16.1
vs
Drake: 14.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.2%
Illinois State: 51.8%
vs
Drake: 47.6%
Turnovers (L5)
+9.1% more
Drake: 10.8
vs
Illinois State: 9.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ILST Score
95.0
73
DRKE Score
60.0
56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.6 / 33.6
27.0 / 57.0
Assists
14.3 / 16.1
10.0 / 15.0
Blocks
1.8 / 1.8
0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
47.6 / 51.8
34.0 / 63.0
Free Throw %
67.8 / 66.7
61.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
34.1 / 35.1
20.0 / 37.0
Steals
5.1 / 7.3
12.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 9.9
9.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILST
Advantage
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
DRKE
14-20-0
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILST
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
DRKE
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -3.3
DRKE
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DRKE
ILST
DRKE
ILST
ML
59%
20-14
42%
15-21
38%
13-21
71%
24-10
ATS
85%
29-5
58%
21-15
38%
13-21
71%
24-10
TTL
56%
19-15
58%
21-15
100%
34-0
100%
34-0
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