Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jackrabbits @ Wildcats SDST @ ARIZ

SOUTH DAKOTA STATE

JACKRABBITSSDST

7-7  |  Road

71
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 9:00 PM ET
McKale Memorial Center
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

WILDCATSARIZ

12-0  |  Home

99
AI Model Win Probability
JACKRABBITS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
JACKRABBITS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Arizona)
JackrabbitsSDST (-3.5) 0 WildcatsARIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jackrabbits Cover

6.7%

Wildcats Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARIZ -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

SDST By 1-7 points

4.8%

SDST By 8-14 points

1.1%

ARIZ By 1-7 points

15.3%

ARIZ By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
74
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
89
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
64
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
80
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+30.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o157.5 Win
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 29, 2025 SDST @ ARIZ 71 - 99
Nov 21, 2019 SDST @ ARIZ 64 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +119.8% more
Arizona: 9.6 vs South Dakota State: 4.4
Turnovers (L5) +37.7% more
Arizona: 13.1 vs South Dakota State: 9.5
Rebounding (L5) +34.1% more
Arizona: 44.7 vs South Dakota State: 33.4
Assists (L5) +10.9% more
Arizona: 18.5 vs South Dakota State: 16.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDST Score 74.0 71
ARIZ Score 89.0 99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.8 / 37.4 39.0 / 45.0
Assists 18.5 / 16.7 26.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.1 / 2.9 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 52.6 / 46.9 53.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 71.9 / 63.2 77.0 / 53.0
Rebounding 44.7 / 33.4 45.0 / 30.0
Steals 9.6 / 4.4 9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 9.5 14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDST
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.8
ARIZ Advantage
36-3-0 (92.3%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDST
12-16-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.8
ARIZ Advantage
23-15-1 (60.5%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SDST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: 0.0
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
SDST
ARIZ
SDST
ML
67% 26-13
75% 24-8
68% 23-11
53% 17-15
ATS
74% 29-10
78% 25-7
68% 23-11
53% 17-15
TTL
56% 22-17
53% 17-15
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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