VALPARAISO
BEACONSVAL
6-6 | Road
48
NORTHERN IOWA
PANTHERSUNI
9-3 | Home
58
AI Model Win Probability
BEACONS
100%
PANTHERS
0%
BEACONS
--
PANTHERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
NORTHERN IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Northern Iowa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNI -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNI)
VAL By 1-7 points
1.7%
VAL By 8-14 points
0.3%
UNI By 1-7 points
8.0%
UNI By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Valparaiso
64
VALPARAISO
Northern Iowa
84
NORTHERN IOWA
Simulated Score
Valparaiso
68
VALPARAISO
Northern Iowa
72
NORTHERN IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Panthers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Panthers (-10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Panthers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o131.5
Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim
u131.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
UNI @ VAL
44 - 54
Dec 29, 2025
VAL @ UNI
48 - 58
Mar 7, 2025
VAL @ UNI
64 - 63
Jan 4, 2025
UNI @ VAL
73 - 80
Feb 27, 2024
VAL @ UNI
54 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+56.7% more
Northern Iowa: 4.2
vs
Valparaiso: 2.7
Steals (L5)
+49.4% more
Northern Iowa: 7.8
vs
Valparaiso: 5.2
Assists (L5)
+28.2% more
Northern Iowa: 17.6
vs
Valparaiso: 13.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.0%
Northern Iowa: 71.6%
vs
Valparaiso: 69.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VAL Score
64.0
48
UNI Score
84.0
58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.6 / 34.0
33.0 / 13.0
Assists
17.6 / 13.8
11.0 / 8.0
Blocks
4.2 / 2.7
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 45.1
47.0 / 29.0
Free Throw %
71.6 / 69.6
78.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
32.1 / 36.0
32.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.8 / 5.2
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
9.7 / 11.5
10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAL
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: +2.7
UNI
Advantage
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 7.7
ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAL
Advantage
18-13-1
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: +2.7
UNI
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 7.7
ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: -0.9
UNI
14-21-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNI
VAL
UNI
VAL
ML
51%
18-17
48%
16-17
56%
19-15
61%
20-13
ATS
49%
17-18
52%
17-16
56%
19-15
61%
20-13
TTL
69%
24-11
61%
20-13
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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