Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Salukis @ Racers SIU @ MUR

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

SALUKISSIU

6-7  |  Road

81
FINAL
Mon, Dec 29 • 7:00 PM ET
CFSB Center
View Odds Details →

MURRAY STATE

RACERSMUR

10-3  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
SALUKIS
100%
📊
RACERS
0%
SALUKIS --
RACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
MURRAY STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Murray State)
SalukisSIU (-3.5) 0 RacersMUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Salukis Cover

9.7%

Racers Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MUR -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MUR)

SIU By 1-7 points

6.8%

SIU By 8-14 points

1.7%

MUR By 1-7 points

18.6%

MUR By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
66
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
79
MURRAY STATE
Simulated Score
68
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
72
MURRAY STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Racers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Racers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Racers (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Racers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u165.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u165.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 6, 2026 MUR @ SIU 91 - 81
Dec 29, 2025 SIU @ MUR 81 - 84
Feb 19, 2025 SIU @ MUR 60 - 62
Jan 22, 2025 MUR @ SIU 74 - 64
Feb 21, 2024 MUR @ SIU 68 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +41.8% more
Murray State: 3.9 vs Southern Illinois: 2.8
Free Throw % (L5) +12.3%
Murray State: 78.9% vs Southern Illinois: 66.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.8%
Murray State: 37.7% vs Southern Illinois: 26.9%
Assists (L5) +10.3% more
Murray State: 14.3 vs Southern Illinois: 13.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SIU Score 66.0 81
MUR Score 79.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.7 / 26.9 37.0 / 38.0
Assists 14.3 / 13.0 16.0 / 4.0
Blocks 3.9 / 2.8 4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 47.1 51.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 78.9 / 66.6 76.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 37.7 / 37.3 32.0 / 38.0
Steals 4.7 / 9.0 8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 14.9 14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +1.7
MUR Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIU Advantage
16-15-0 (51.6%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +1.7
MUR
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SIU
9-22-0
O: 29.0% / U: 71.0% Total +/-: -5.5
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MUR
SIU
MUR
SIU
ML
58% 19-14
53% 17-15
61% 20-13
47% 15-17
ATS
52% 17-16
56% 18-14
61% 20-13
47% 15-17
TTL
70% 23-10
53% 17-15
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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