WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
20-13-5 | Road
3
FLORIDA
PANTHERSFLA
20-15-2 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Niko Mikkola
#77 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 4.09 | 0.857 | -- |
| Niko Mikkola | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.09
GAA
--
0.857
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
PANTHERS
0%
CAPITALS
--
PANTHERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Florida)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around FLA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)
WSH By 1 goal
12.1%
WSH By 2-3 goals
9.3%
FLA By 1 goal
19.7%
FLA By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Florida
4
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Florida
4
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Panthers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Panthers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Panthers (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o5.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
FLA @ WSH
5 - 2
Dec 29, 2025
WSH @ FLA
3 - 5
Nov 13, 2025
WSH @ FLA
3 - 6
Mar 22, 2025
FLA @ WSH
3 - 6
Feb 4, 2025
FLA @ WSH
3 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+75.5% more
Florida: 27.5
vs
Washington: 15.7
Takeaways (L5)
+22.0% more
Florida: 3.9
vs
Washington: 3.2
Power Play % (L5)
+9.0%
Florida: 18.0%
vs
Washington: 9.0%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+25.2% more
Washington: 16.6
vs
Florida: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.0
3
FLA Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.4 / 16.6
6.0 / 21.0
Faceoff %
47.3 / 53.6
46.6 / 53.4
Hits
27.5 / 15.7
16.0 / 19.0
Power Play %
18.0 / 9.0
16.7 / 16.7
Shots on Goal
25.4 / 31.3
29.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
3.9 / 3.2
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
WSH
FLA
WSH
ML
0%
0-4
100%
3-0
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
ATS
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
TTL
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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