Home / NHL Projections NHL / Canadiens @ Lightning MTL @ TB

MONTREAL

CANADIENSMTL

20-12-5  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Dec 28 • 5:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

21-13-3  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Jacob Fowler
GOALTENDER

Jacob Fowler

#32 | G
@
J.J. Moser
GOALTENDER

J.J. Moser

#90 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Jacob Fowler None-None 3.77 0.810 --
J.J. Moser None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.77 GAA --
0.810 Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
CANADIENS
100%
📊
LIGHTNING
0%
CANADIENS --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
CanadiensMTL (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Canadiens Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

MTL By 1 goal

12.1%

MTL By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
MONTREAL
4
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
2
MONTREAL
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lightning Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lightning (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Lightning (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 MTL @ TB 2 - 1
May 1, 2026 TB @ MTL 1 - 0
Apr 29, 2026 MTL @ TB 3 - 2
Apr 26, 2026 TB @ MTL 3 - 2
Apr 24, 2026 TB @ MTL 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +11.8% more
Tampa Bay: 4.3 vs Montreal: 3.8
Power Play % (L5) +7.5%
Tampa Bay: 22.0% vs Montreal: 14.5%
Blocked Shots (L5) +21.1% more
Montreal: 16.5 vs Tampa Bay: 13.0
Shots on Goal (L5) +8.3% more
Montreal: 27.4 vs Tampa Bay: 25.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTL Score 3.0 4
TB Score 4.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 13.0 / 16.5 23.0 / 11.0
Faceoff % 49.5 / 49.0 37.3 / 62.7
Hits 22.5 / 21.6 17.0 / 26.0
Power Play % 2197.0 / 1450.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 25.1 / 27.4 21.0 / 35.0
Takeaways 4.3 / 3.8 3.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
72%MONEY28%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
MTL
TB
MTL
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
ATS
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
TTL
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Barkov Eyes Late November Return; Marchand Could Be Back Soon fo…
wsvn 3 minutes ago
Canadiens Turn to Rookie Jacob Fowler in Net Against Predators; …
yardbarker 6 hours, 4 minutes ago
Canadiens Accused of Showcasing Kirby Dach as Trade Rumors Swirl
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Steelers Bolster Secondary with Addition of Veteran Cornerback S…
si 1 day ago
Canadiens Call Up Jacob Fowler After Samuel Montembeault Injury …
yardbarker 1 day ago