Home / NBA Projections NBA / Celtics @ Trail Blazers BOS @ POR

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

19-11  |  Road

108
FINAL
Sun, Dec 28 • 6:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

12-19  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
CELTICS --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Boston)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

95.5%

Trail Blazers Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-7 points

12.2%

BOS By 8-14 points

23.0%

POR By 1-7 points

3.3%

POR By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
124
BOSTON
107
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
106
BOSTON
118
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Celtics Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trail Blazers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Celtics (+7) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Trail Blazers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u231.5 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Sim u231.5 Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 26, 2026 POR @ BOS 94 - 102
Dec 28, 2025 BOS @ POR 108 - 114
Mar 23, 2025 BOS @ POR 129 - 116
Mar 5, 2025 POR @ BOS 118 - 128
Apr 7, 2024 POR @ BOS 107 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +7.5%
Boston: 79.5% vs Portland: 72.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
Boston: 39.9% vs Portland: 33.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.4%
Boston: 50.0% vs Portland: 45.5%
Turnovers (L5) +30.0% more
Portland: 17.3 vs Boston: 13.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 124.0 108
POR Score 107.0 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 39.9 35.0 / 30.0
Assists 23.1 / 22.8 26.0 / 19.0
Blocks 4.5 / 4.7 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 50.0 47.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 72.0 / 79.5 57.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 43.2 / 45.7 48.0 / 39.0
Steals 7.5 / 7.4 7.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 17.3 / 13.3 20.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
POR
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
BOS
POR
BOS
ML
53% 56-49
57% 61-46
55% 49-40
53% 47-41
ATS
62% 65-39-1
59% 61-43-3
55% 49-40
53% 47-41
TTL
56% 58-46-1
56% 60-47
100% 89-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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